ADC — Agree Realty Corporation

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ADC Bearish with a Setup Score of 7, net conviction 23, actionability 2. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score7
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction23
Actionability2 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Agree Realty Corporation

Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. The Firm is Rethinking Retail through the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading, omni-channel retail tenants. As of June 30, 2026, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 2,825 properties, located in all 50 states and containing approximately 59.6 million square feet of gross leasable area. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$65.95
Market Cap$8.21B
Float121.8M
Shares Outstanding124.4M
P/E (Forward)35.09
P/E (TTM)35.39
Price/Sales (TTM)10.53
vs. Analyst Target+25.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin28.84%
Operating Margin (TTM)48.12%
Revenue (TTM)$780M
Earnings Growth (YoY)2.10%
Dividend Rate3.2%
Analyst Target Price$82.89 (20 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $249M $91.4M $217M $216M
2021 $339M $122M $298M $296M
2022 $430M $152M $378M $386M
2023 $537M $170M $471M $464M
2024 $617M $189M $542M $543M
2025 $718M $204M $630M $617M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $183M $52.1M
Dec 2025 $190M $56.0M
Mar 2026 $201M $62.2M
Jun 2026 $205M $54.7M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.8%
Institutional Ownership117.7%
Short Float5.1%
% of All Funds Holding5.55%
Number of Funds Holding488

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$70.87Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$75.05Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$74.33Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$69.44Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$73.79Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$73.84Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$69.34Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$72.00 resistance 1.26x 0 months ago
$77.00 resistance 1.28x 1 months ago
$80.00 resistance 1.25x 6 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (112 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.08% 0.00% 47.32% 4.03% -7.49%
1 Day 0.27% 0.24% 57.14% 9.19% -5.34%
1 Week 0.23% 0.32% 56.25% 11.09% -16.28%
2 Weeks 0.36% 0.26% 50.89% 14.02% -33.23%
1 Month 0.55% 1.57% 58.93% 32.47% -27.55%

Next earnings: October 20, 2026 (9 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.4%59.4%32
Feb0.2%46.9%32
Mar1.3%56.3%32
Apr0.4%59.4%32
May1.4%48.5%33
Jun1.1%66.7%33
Jul2.3%66.7%33
Aug-0.0%45.5%33
Sep-0.8%45.5%33
Oct-0.0%56.3%32
Nov0.3%65.6%32
Dec1.0%50.0%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 48.9% 1536
Tuesday 0.08% 49.1% 1678
Wednesday -0.07% 47.7% 1676
Thursday 0.03% 49.5% 1644
Friday 0.11% 51.1% 1637

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 117.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.8%

Founder-led management: Richard Agree (Executive Chairman of the Board)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings13
Net Value+$3.7M
Net Shares Change129,956
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings6
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
RAKOLTA JOHN JR +$5.1M 4 4 buy
AGREE RICHARD EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN OF BOARD +$2.1M 2 2 buy
Agree Joey PRESIDENT & CEO +$1.5M 2 2 buy
Erlich Craig CHIEF GROWTH OFFICER +$67,550 1 1 buy
Lehmkuhl Greg +$56,317.5 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-18 – 2026-05-19 3 3 +$2.6M 1 C-suite
2026-09-17 – 2026-09-23 3 3 +$1.9M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-09-23 Erlich Craig CHIEF GROWTH OFFICER +$67,550 Transaction at $67.55, now -2.4%
2026-09-17 Agree Joey PRESIDENT & CEO +$500,921.6 Transaction at $68.06, now -3.1%
2026-09-17 RAKOLTA JOHN JR +$1.4M Transaction at $68.78, now -4.1%
2026-08-31 RAKOLTA JOHN JR +$1.5M Transaction at $73.23, now -9.9%
2026-09-02 RAKOLTA JOHN JR +$724,200 Transaction at $72.42, now -8.9%
2026-05-18 Agree Joey PRESIDENT & CEO +$1.0M Transaction at $75.41, now -12.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ADC on Trend Edge →