SERA — Sera Prognostics Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SERA Bearish with a Setup Score of 39, net conviction 62, actionability 24. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score39
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction62
Actionability24 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Sera Prognostics Inc

Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health company, discovers, develops, and commercializes blood-based biomarker tests, and predictive analytic products and services in the United States. The company develops the PreTRM test, a non-invasive blood test given to a pregnant woman, carrying a single fetus, during weeks 18 through 20 of gestation. It is also involved in the development of a pipeline of novel blood-based biomarker tests and predictive a… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$1.97
Market Cap$80.7M
Float27.5M
Shares Outstanding38.2M
Price/Sales (TTM)1,415.21
vs. Analyst Target+179.2% to analyst PT
Operating Margin (TTM)-66857.14%
Revenue (TTM)$57,000
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$5.50 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $25,000 -$19.8M $14,000 -$17.1M
2021 $82,000 -$35.0M $45,000 -$33.6M
2022 $268,000 -$44.2M $75,000 -$43.4M
2023 $306,000 -$36.2M $96,000 -$35.3M
2024 $77,000 -$32.9M -$5,000 -$32.0M
2025 $81,000 -$31.9M -$83,000 -$31.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $17,000 -$8.0M
Sep 2025 $16,000 -$7.8M
Dec 2025 $10,000 -$7.9M
Mar 2026 $14,000 -$8.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership11.5%
Institutional Ownership51.0%
Short Float1.0%
% of All Funds Holding0.61%
Number of Funds Holding50

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$1.95Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$2.57Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$3.04Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$4.14Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$2.45Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$3.17Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$4.47Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$1.60 support 4.28x 12 months ago
$6.20 resistance 1.02x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (20 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.55% -0.87% 25.00% 12.65% -13.58%
1 Day -2.48% -0.29% 50.00% 10.77% -18.55%
1 Week -8.84% -5.34% 25.00% 9.49% -31.22%
2 Weeks -10.67% -7.79% 25.00% 8.81% -39.57%
1 Month -2.64% -5.95% 36.84% 139.59% -44.44%

Next earnings: August 5, 2026 (24 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.26% 40.3% 233
Tuesday -0.71% 43.4% 258
Wednesday 0.97% 46.9% 256
Thursday 0.05% 43.4% 249
Friday 0.44% 45.0% 251

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 51.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 11.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings67
Net Value-$791,154.594
Net Shares Change-295,563
% of Float-1.1%
C-Suite Filings58
Clusters Detected8

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kearney Paul Chief Data Officer -$79,299.54 2 1 sell
Harrison Robert Gardner Chief Information Officer -$45,566.84 3 N/A
Lindgardt Zhenya Chief Executive Officer -$43,170.4 1 N/A
Jackson Benjamin General Counsel -$18,494.58 1 N/A
Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. Chief Commercial Officer -$9,525.39 1 N/A
Lawrence Sandra AJ -$6,396 2 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-05 – 2025-08-11 7 7 -$103,010.86 6 C-suite
2025-09-05 – 2025-09-12 11 8 -$121,138.63 9 C-suite
2025-11-04 – 2025-11-12 8 7 -$128,306.48 7 C-suite
2025-11-26 – 2025-12-10 7 6 -$159,448.98 5 C-suite
2025-12-11 – 2025-12-11 6 6 -$30,058.11 6 C-suite
2026-02-24 – 2026-03-10 7 6 -$31,667.32 6 C-suite
2026-03-12 – 2026-03-12 6 6 -$72,188.184 6 C-suite
2026-06-09 – 2026-06-15 8 6 -$90,616.67 7 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-12-03 Kearney Paul Chief Data Officer -$42,507.96 Transaction at $2.28, now -13.6%
2026-06-15 Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. Chief Commercial Officer -$9,525.39 Transaction at $2.01, now -2.0%
2026-06-09 Lawrence Sandra AJ -$3,354 Transaction at $2.15, now -8.4%
2026-06-10 Lindgardt Zhenya Chief Executive Officer -$43,170.4 Transaction at $2.08, now -5.3%
2026-03-06 Lawrence Sandra AJ -$3,042 Transaction at $1.95, now +1.0%
2025-11-12 Jackson Benjamin General Counsel -$18,494.58 Transaction at $2.62, now -24.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SERA on Trend Edge →