SERA — Sera Prognostics Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SERA Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 41, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction41
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Sera Prognostics Inc

Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health company, discovers, develops, and commercializes blood-based biomarker tests, and predictive analytic products and services in the United States. The company develops the PreTRM test, a non-invasive blood test given to a pregnant woman, carrying a single fetus, during weeks 18 through 20 of gestation. It is also involved in the development of a pipeline of novel blood-based biomarker tests and predictive a… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$2.18
Market Cap$82.8M
Float27.8M
Shares Outstanding38.5M
Price/Sales (TTM)1,183.48
vs. Analyst Target+152.3% to analyst PT
Operating Margin (TTM)-33346.67%
Revenue (TTM)$70,000
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$5.50 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $25,000 -$19.8M $14,000 -$17.1M
2021 $82,000 -$35.0M $45,000 -$33.6M
2022 $268,000 -$44.2M $75,000 -$43.4M
2023 $306,000 -$36.2M $96,000 -$35.3M
2024 $77,000 -$32.9M -$5,000 -$32.0M
2025 $81,000 -$31.9M -$83,000 -$31.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $16,000 -$7.8M
Dec 2025 $10,000 -$7.9M
Mar 2026 $14,000 -$8.4M
Jun 2026 $30,000 -$9.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership11.9%
Institutional Ownership50.2%
Short Float0.8%
% of All Funds Holding0.53%
Number of Funds Holding47

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$2.03Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$2.38Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$2.69Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$4.15Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$2.35Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$2.88Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$4.45Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$1.60 support 4.28x 13 months ago
$6.20 resistance 1.02x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (21 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.45% -0.77% 28.57% 12.65% -13.58%
1 Day -2.39% -0.50% 47.62% 10.77% -18.55%
1 Week -8.23% -5.14% 28.57% 9.49% -31.22%
2 Weeks -10.67% -7.79% 25.00% 8.81% -39.57%
1 Month -1.63% -3.69% 40.00% 139.59% -44.44%

Next earnings: October 31, 2026 (66 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.25% 40.4% 240
Tuesday -0.70% 43.0% 265
Wednesday 0.99% 47.9% 263
Thursday 0.10% 44.1% 256
Friday 0.36% 44.6% 258

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 50.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 11.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings59
Net Value-$675,386.234
Net Shares Change-249,004
% of Float-0.9%
C-Suite Filings51
Clusters Detected7

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lindgardt Zhenya Chief Executive Officer -$92,250.676 2 N/A
Kearney Paul Chief Data Officer -$79,299.54 2 1 sell
Jackson Benjamin General Counsel -$18,494.58 1 N/A
Harrison Robert Gardner Chief Information Officer -$17,103.36 1 N/A
Aerts Austin Chief Financial Officer -$13,609.669 1 N/A
Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. Chief Commercial Officer -$9,525.39 1 N/A
Lawrence Sandra AJ -$6,396 2 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-02 – 2025-09-12 13 8 -$163,018.63 11 C-suite
2025-11-04 – 2025-11-12 8 7 -$128,306.48 7 C-suite
2025-11-26 – 2025-12-10 7 6 -$159,448.98 5 C-suite
2025-12-11 – 2025-12-11 6 6 -$30,058.11 6 C-suite
2026-02-24 – 2026-03-10 7 6 -$31,667.32 6 C-suite
2026-03-12 – 2026-03-12 6 6 -$72,188.184 6 C-suite
2026-06-09 – 2026-06-15 8 6 -$90,616.67 7 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-12-03 Kearney Paul Chief Data Officer -$42,507.96 Transaction at $2.28, now -4.4%
2026-06-15 Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. Chief Commercial Officer -$9,525.39 Transaction at $2.01, now +8.5%
2026-06-09 Lawrence Sandra AJ -$3,354 Transaction at $2.15, now +1.4%
2026-06-10 Lindgardt Zhenya Chief Executive Officer -$43,170.4 Transaction at $2.08, now +4.8%
2026-03-06 Lawrence Sandra AJ -$3,042 Transaction at $1.95, now +11.8%
2025-11-12 Jackson Benjamin General Counsel -$18,494.58 Transaction at $2.62, now -16.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SERA on Trend Edge →