RCEL — Avita Medical Ltd

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates RCEL Bearish with a Setup Score of 56, net conviction 35, actionability 90. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score56
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction35
Actionability90 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Avita Medical Ltd

AVITA Medical, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a therapeutic acute wound care company in the United States, Japan, the European Union, Australia, and the United Kingdom. The company's lead product is the RECELL System, a cell harvesting device used for the treatment of thermal burn wounds and full-thickness skin defects, as well as for repigmentation of stable depigmented vitiligo lesions. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$4.06
Market Cap$136M
Float30.3M
Shares Outstanding30.8M
P/E (Forward)10.29
Price/Sales (TTM)1.88
vs. Analyst Target+122.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-62.67%
Operating Margin (TTM)-45.73%
Revenue (TTM)$72.3M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$9.05 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $33.0M -$25.1M $26.9M -$24.4M
2022 N/A N/A N/A N/A
2022 $34.4M -$26.7M $28.4M -$26.0M
2023 $50.1M -$35.4M $42.4M -$33.5M
2024 $64.3M -$61.8M $55.2M -$55.3M
2025 $71.6M -$48.6M $58.8M -$39.6M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $18.4M -$9.9M
Sep 2025 $17.1M -$13.2M
Dec 2025 $17.6M -$11.6M
Mar 2026 $19.3M -$10.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.5%
Institutional Ownership17.2%
Short Float10.6%
% of All Funds Holding0.84%
Number of Funds Holding69

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$4.28Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$4.14Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$5.64Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$9.29Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$4.10Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$5.77Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$9.35Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$5.20 resistance 1.82x 10 months ago
$9.70 resistance 1.92x 13 months ago
$13.00 resistance 1.28x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (34 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.51% -0.39% 41.18% 8.30% -30.67%
1 Day -1.99% -1.51% 35.29% 20.68% -36.42%
1 Week -3.39% -3.67% 41.18% 31.63% -39.26%
2 Weeks -1.31% -1.86% 47.06% 32.12% -33.71%
1 Month 1.64% -2.30% 45.45% 115.20% -61.05%

Next earnings: August 6, 2026 (25 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan9.3%57.1%14
Feb2.0%42.9%14
Mar1.9%35.7%14
Apr-1.1%42.9%14
May-6.4%42.9%14
Jun3.3%40.0%15
Jul1.8%57.1%14
Aug-2.7%35.7%14
Sep2.1%42.9%14
Oct-5.8%35.7%14
Nov3.5%57.1%14
Dec-0.5%35.7%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.08% 42.4% 667
Tuesday 0.10% 44.0% 731
Wednesday -0.26% 41.3% 728
Thursday 0.00% 42.8% 715
Friday 0.39% 46.6% 713

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 17.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings12
Net Value+$56,714
Net Shares Change78,000
% of Float0.3%
C-Suite Filings6
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Woody Joseph Fralin +$188,585 4 4 buy
O'Toole David D CFO +$56,714 6 6 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-11 Woody Joseph Fralin +$20,800 Transaction at $4.00, now +1.5%
2026-05-20 O'Toole David D CFO +$8,520 Transaction at $4.26, now -4.7%
2026-05-19 O'Toole David D CFO +$8,480 Transaction at $4.24, now -4.2%
2026-06-09 Woody Joseph Fralin +$41,900 Transaction at $4.19, now -3.1%
2026-06-05 Woody Joseph Fralin +$40,949 Transaction at $4.09, now -0.9%
2026-06-03 Woody Joseph Fralin +$84,936 Transaction at $4.25, now -4.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for RCEL on Trend Edge →