RCAT — Red Cat Holdings Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Red Cat Holdings Inc

Red Cat Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides drone and robotic solutions for defense, national security, and commercial applications in the United States. The company designs and manufactures small and tactical unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), such as BLACK WIDOW, a short-range reconnaissance war fighter with selectable integrated AI software capabilities; TEAL 2, a blue UAS product of defense used by combat soldiers, police o… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$9.49
Market Cap$1.15B
Float108.5M
Shares Outstanding122.7M
Price/Sales (TTM)26.02
vs. Analyst Target+129.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-138.36%
Operating Margin (TTM)-176.47%
Revenue (TTM)$54.6M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$21.75 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $5.0M -$13.2M $1.1M -$12.0M
2022 $6.4M -$11.7M $925,515 -$11.3M
2023 $4.6M -$28.1M -$834,311 -$22.5M
2024 $17.8M -$24.1M $3.7M -$16.0M
2025 $7.3M -$65.4M -$2.0M -$36.5M
2026 $40.7M -$72.1M $1.3M -$64.3M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jul 2025 $3.2M -$13.3M
Oct 2025 $9.6M -$16.0M
Jan 2026 $26.2M -$19.7M
Apr 2026 $15.5M -$26.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership11.2%
Institutional Ownership42.6%
Short Float26.8%
% of All Funds Holding3.03%
Number of Funds Holding249

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$12.27Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$11.01Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$9.41Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$4.57Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$10.53Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$9.02Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$5.12Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$8.30 support 1.59x 3 months ago
$3.20 support 4.15x 17 months ago
$2.10 support 1.99x 20 months ago
$1.20 support 2.75x 21 months ago
$0.80 support 3.96x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (86 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.19% 0.00% 15.12% 100.00% -37.50%
1 Day 1.92% 0.00% 15.12% 133.33% -37.50%
1 Week 20.51% 0.00% 34.88% 466.67% -36.84%
2 Weeks 16.48% 0.00% 33.72% 300.00% -59.91%
1 Month 19.00% 0.00% 32.56% 618.39% -75.00%

Next earnings: May 7, 2026

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan20.2%33.3%24
Feb17.8%48.0%25
Mar-9.3%24.0%25
Apr25.6%36.0%25
May12.2%29.2%24
Jun-3.5%37.5%24
Jul0.3%25.0%24
Aug1.7%33.3%24
Sep0.1%41.7%24
Oct15.3%37.5%24
Nov5.8%25.0%24
Dec-0.8%25.0%24

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 1.09% 20.7% 1147
Tuesday 1.08% 20.2% 1256
Wednesday 1.33% 21.5% 1255
Thursday 1.19% 20.4% 1230
Friday 2.62% 23.1% 1227

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 42.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 11.2%

Founder-led management: Jeff Thompson (Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-87,142
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Liuzza Nicholas Reyland JR -$1.2M 1 1 sell
Moe Christopher R. -$861,561.187 3 3 sell
Freedman Joseph David -$729,000 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-09-30 Moe Christopher R. -$109,100 Transaction at $10.91, now -13.0%
2025-09-15 Moe Christopher R. -$501,900 Transaction at $10.04, now -5.5%
2025-08-22 Moe Christopher R. -$250,561.187 Transaction at $9.34, now +1.6%
2025-07-09 Liuzza Nicholas Reyland JR -$1.2M Transaction at $4.57, now +107.7%
2025-07-03 Freedman Joseph David -$729,000 Transaction at $4.94, now +92.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for RCAT on Trend Edge →