Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge Setup Score
Trend Edge rates RCAT Bullish with a Setup Score of 30, net conviction 45, actionability 20. How the Setup Score works →
Total Setup Score
30
Directional Bias
Bullish
Net Conviction
45
Actionability
20 (in range)
Key signals behind this score
40wk Uptrend — trend only (sma 10.99 vs px 8.93)
80wk Uptrend — trend only (sma 9.56 vs px 8.93)
200wk Uptrend — rising+above (sma 5.17 vs px 8.93)
Funds Accumulating — momZ +4.26 · 2.97→3.18
Short Squeeze Setup — velZ +0.12 · age 3w×1.00 · 23.82%
Founder-Led — founder/CEO led
About Red Cat Holdings Inc
Red Cat Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides drone and robotic solutions for defense, national security, and commercial applications in the United States. The company designs and manufactures small and tactical unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), such as BLACK WIDOW, a short-range reconnaissance war fighter with selectable integrated AI software capabilities; TEAL 2, a blue UAS product of defense used by combat soldiers, police o… Read full Trend Edge analysis →
Sector: Technology
Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Exchange: NASDAQ
IPO Date: September 22, 2017
Headquarters: 2800 South West Temple, South Salt Lake, UT, United States, 84115
Founder-Led: Yes — Jeff Thompson (Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President)
Key Metrics
Current Price
$9.10
Market Cap
$1.46B
Float
138.7M
Shares Outstanding
152.7M
Price/Sales (TTM)
20.34
vs. Analyst Target
+101.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin
-136.27%
Operating Margin (TTM)
-191.42%
Revenue (TTM)
$71.5M
Dividend Rate
None
Analyst Target Price
$18.33 (3 analysts)
Financial History
Annual Revenue & Earnings History
Year
Revenue
Net Income
Gross Profit
EBITDA
2021
$5.0M
-$13.2M
$1.1M
-$12.0M
2022
$6.4M
-$11.7M
$925,515
-$11.3M
2023
$4.6M
-$28.1M
-$834,311
-$22.5M
2024
$17.8M
-$24.1M
$3.7M
-$16.0M
2025
$7.3M
-$65.4M
-$2.0M
-$36.5M
2026
$40.7M
-$72.1M
$1.3M
-$69.4M
Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income
Quarter
Revenue
Net Income
Jul 2025
$3.2M
-$13.3M
Oct 2025
$9.6M
-$16.0M
Jan 2026
$26.2M
-$19.7M
Apr 2026
$15.5M
-$26.6M
Ownership & Float
Insider Ownership
8.8%
Institutional Ownership
58.9%
Short Float
23.3%
% of All Funds Holding
3.18%
Number of Funds Holding
280
Current Moving Averages
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
Timeframe
SMA
Value
Trend Context
Weekly
10-Week SMA
$9.04
Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly
40-Week SMA
$10.99
Medium-term trend
Weekly
80-Week SMA
$9.56
Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly
200-Week SMA
$5.17
Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly
10-Month SMA
$10.71
Near-term monthly trend
Monthly
20-Month SMA
$9.25
Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly
40-Month SMA
$5.85
Secular monthly trend
Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume
creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative
volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
Price Level
Type
Volume Ratio
Age
$14.30
resistance
1.08x
1 months ago
$3.20
support
4.15x
20 months ago
$2.10
support
1.99x
23 months ago
$1.20
support
2.75x
24 months ago
Historical Earnings Reactions (89 events)
Timeframe
Avg Return
Median
Win Rate
Best
Worst
Gap
1.42%
0.00%
17.98%
100.00%
-37.50%
1 Day
2.20%
0.00%
19.10%
133.33%
-37.50%
1 Week
20.60%
0.00%
38.20%
466.67%
-36.84%
2 Weeks
16.36%
0.00%
35.96%
300.00%
-59.91%
1 Month
18.52%
0.00%
34.09%
618.39%
-75.00%
Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (59 days away)
Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns
Monthly Seasonality
Month
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Jan
20.2%
33.3%
24
Feb
17.8%
48.0%
25
Mar
-9.3%
24.0%
25
Apr
25.6%
36.0%
25
May
12.7%
32.0%
25
Jun
-4.4%
36.0%
25
Jul
-0.9%
24.0%
25
Aug
1.7%
33.3%
24
Sep
0.1%
41.7%
24
Oct
15.3%
37.5%
24
Nov
5.8%
25.0%
24
Dec
-0.8%
25.0%
24
Day-of-Week Tendencies
Day
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Monday
1.08%
21.1%
1161
Tuesday
1.06%
20.5%
1271
Wednesday
1.28%
21.5%
1270
Thursday
1.22%
21.0%
1245
Friday
2.59%
23.5%
1240
Top Institutional Holders
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 58.9%
Insider Transactions — Smart Summary
Total insider ownership: 8.8%
Founder-led management: Jeff Thompson (Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President)
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Red Cat Holdings Inc
(RCAT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model.
The analysis covers five layers:
technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum,
volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals),
qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics),
insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions),
share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and
fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit,
stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward.
Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup,
AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.