RCAT — Red Cat Holdings Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates RCAT Bearish with a Setup Score of 14, net conviction 30, actionability 7. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score14
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction30
Actionability7 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Red Cat Holdings Inc

Red Cat Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides drone and robotic solutions for defense, national security, and commercial applications in the United States. The company designs and manufactures small and tactical unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), such as BLACK WIDOW, a short-range reconnaissance war fighter with selectable integrated AI software capabilities; TEAL 2, a blue UAS product of defense used by combat soldiers, police o… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$8.83
Market Cap$1.40B
Float111.5M
Shares Outstanding152.2M
Price/Sales (TTM)25.63
vs. Analyst Target+149.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-138.36%
Operating Margin (TTM)-176.47%
Revenue (TTM)$54.6M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$22.00 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $5.0M -$13.2M $1.1M -$12.0M
2022 $6.4M -$11.7M $925,515 -$11.3M
2023 $4.6M -$28.1M -$834,311 -$22.5M
2024 $17.8M -$24.1M $3.7M -$16.0M
2025 $7.3M -$65.4M -$2.0M -$36.5M
2026 $40.7M -$72.1M $1.3M -$69.4M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jul 2025 $3.2M -$13.3M
Oct 2025 $9.6M -$16.0M
Jan 2026 $26.2M -$19.7M
Apr 2026 $15.5M -$26.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership9.1%
Institutional Ownership44.2%
Short Float26.2%
% of All Funds Holding3.03%
Number of Funds Holding249

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$10.76Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$11.20Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$9.65Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$4.92Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$11.05Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$9.50Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$5.67Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$14.30 resistance 1.08x 0 months ago
$8.30 support 1.59x 5 months ago
$3.20 support 4.15x 19 months ago
$2.10 support 1.99x 22 months ago
$1.20 support 2.75x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (88 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.46% 0.00% 18.18% 100.00% -37.50%
1 Day 2.15% 0.00% 18.18% 133.33% -37.50%
1 Week 20.51% 0.00% 37.50% 466.67% -36.84%
2 Weeks 16.42% 0.00% 35.23% 300.00% -59.91%
1 Month 18.67% 0.00% 33.33% 618.39% -75.00%

Next earnings: August 13, 2026 (32 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan20.2%33.3%24
Feb17.8%48.0%25
Mar-9.3%24.0%25
Apr25.6%36.0%25
May12.7%32.0%25
Jun-4.4%36.0%25
Jul0.3%25.0%24
Aug1.7%33.3%24
Sep0.1%41.7%24
Oct15.3%37.5%24
Nov5.8%25.0%24
Dec-0.8%25.0%24

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 1.08% 20.9% 1154
Tuesday 1.06% 20.3% 1264
Wednesday 1.31% 21.6% 1263
Thursday 1.22% 20.8% 1238
Friday 2.59% 23.3% 1233

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 44.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 9.1%

Founder-led management: Jeff Thompson (Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-251,861
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Funk Paul II -$1.9M 1 1 sell
Moe Christopher R. -$861,561.187 3 3 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-15 Funk Paul II -$1.9M Transaction at $11.50, now -23.2%
2025-09-30 Moe Christopher R. -$109,100 Transaction at $10.91, now -19.1%
2025-09-15 Moe Christopher R. -$501,900 Transaction at $10.04, now -12.0%
2025-08-22 Moe Christopher R. -$250,561.187 Transaction at $9.34, now -5.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for RCAT on Trend Edge →