PEN — Penumbra Inc

✨ Hidden Gem Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PEN Bullish with a Setup Score of 69, net conviction 52, actionability 91. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score69
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction52
Actionability91 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Penumbra Inc

Penumbra, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally. It offers computer-assisted vacuum thrombectomy; peripheral thrombectomy products, including the Indigo System for power aspiration of thrombus in the body; Lightning Flash, a mechanical thrombectomy system; Lightning Bolt 7, an arterial thrombectomy system; and CAT RX. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$323.75
Market Cap$12.75B
Float38.3M
Shares Outstanding39.4M
P/E (Forward)68.49
P/E (TTM)79.35
Price/Sales (TTM)8.47
vs. Analyst Target+11.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin10.67%
Operating Margin (TTM)10.52%
Revenue (TTM)$1.50B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-23.50%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$361.83 (18 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $560M -$19.3M $338M -$26.1M
2021 $748M $2.6M $475M $8.9M
2022 $847M -$2.0M $535M $30.0M
2023 $1.06B $91.0M $683M $109M
2024 $1.19B $14.0M $755M $46.0M
2025 $1.40B $178M $942M $224M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $355M $45.9M
Dec 2025 $385M $47.3M
Mar 2026 $375M $32.6M
Jun 2026 $390M $34.8M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.9%
Institutional Ownership88.3%
Short Float4.8%
% of All Funds Holding5.05%
Number of Funds Holding444

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$321.22Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$326.41Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$295.61Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$261.67Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$324.05Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$294.12Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$263.97Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$311.00 support 2.71x 6 months ago
$226.00 support 1.02x 8 months ago
$194.00 support 1.03x 21 months ago
$169.00 support 1.34x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (44 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.30% 0.04% 50.00% 15.19% -12.20%
1 Day 2.29% 2.27% 61.36% 23.67% -16.09%
1 Week 1.67% 1.18% 56.82% 27.75% -23.00%
2 Weeks 3.82% 1.82% 68.18% 31.53% -17.02%
1 Month 5.16% 1.70% 55.81% 44.85% -19.65%

Next earnings: October 18, 2026 (54 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan8.3%81.8%11
Feb1.7%54.5%11
Mar0.7%45.5%11
Apr1.8%63.6%11
May-1.2%27.3%11
Jun1.6%54.5%11
Jul2.7%54.5%11
Aug2.5%60.0%10
Sep-0.1%40.0%10
Oct1.1%45.5%11
Nov8.9%72.7%11
Dec-0.1%54.5%11

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.13% 47.7% 514
Tuesday 0.16% 51.4% 566
Wednesday 0.16% 53.3% 563
Thursday 0.20% 54.1% 553
Friday 0.14% 51.3% 550

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 88.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.9%

Founder-led management: Adam Elsesser (Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO), Arani Bose (Co-Founder & Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings19
Net Value-$5.5M
Net Shares Change-27,867
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Bose Arani -$9.1M 3 N/A
Elsesser Adam CEO -$3.4M 1 N/A
Yuen Maggie Chief Financial Officer -$832,473.6 1 N/A
Roberts Johanna EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary -$630,147 2 N/A
Grewal Harpreet -$90,973.04 2 N/A
Wilder Thomas -$57,793.92 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-04 – 2025-09-04 3 3 -$3.6M 2 C-suite
2025-10-03 – 2025-10-03 3 3 -$243,292.86 1 C-suite
2025-11-25 – 2025-12-09 6 3 -$5.3M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-04 Yuen Maggie Chief Financial Officer -$832,473.6 Transaction at $342.30, now -5.4%
2025-12-15 Bose Arani -$4.6M Transaction at $308.82, now +4.8%
2025-11-26 Roberts Johanna EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary -$540,108 Transaction at $300.06, now +7.9%
2025-11-26 Bose Arani -$2.3M Transaction at $300.19, now +7.8%
2025-11-25 Bose Arani -$2.2M Transaction at $290.56, now +11.4%
2025-09-04 Elsesser Adam CEO -$3.4M Transaction at $149.82, now +116.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Penumbra Inc (PEN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PEN on Trend Edge →