Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge rates PAX Bearish with a Setup Score of 69, net conviction 39, actionability 122. How the Setup Score works →
| Total Setup Score | 69 |
|---|---|
| Directional Bias | Bearish |
| Net Conviction | 39 |
| Actionability | 122 (in range) |
Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with focus on agribusiness, power & energy, healthcare, logistics & transportations, food & beverage, agricultural products, packaged foods and meats, education services, outsourc… Read full Trend Edge analysis →
| Current Price | $11.67 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.85B |
| Float | 60.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 71.0M |
| P/E (Forward) | 8.14 |
| P/E (TTM) | 26.19 |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 4.31 |
| vs. Analyst Target | +28.5% to analyst PT |
| Profit Margin | 16.31% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 22.55% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $428M |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | -18.70% |
| Dividend Rate | 0.7% |
| Analyst Target Price | $15.00 (6 analysts) |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $115M | $62.2M | $104M | $73.5M |
| 2021 | $236M | $122M | $221M | $131M |
| 2022 | $259M | $93.0M | $224M | $125M |
| 2023 | $328M | $118M | $289M | $146M |
| 2024 | $374M | $71.9M | $324M | $133M |
| 2025 | $384M | $85.6M | $369M | $178M |
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | $134M | $34.5M |
| Mar 2026 | $98.2M | $2.3M |
| Jun 2026 | $116M | $10.5M |
| Sep 2026 | $116M | $10.5M |
| Insider Ownership | 5.5% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | 61.8% |
| Short Float | 9.8% |
| % of All Funds Holding | 1.67% |
| Number of Funds Holding | 147 |
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
| Timeframe | SMA | Value | Trend Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10-Week SMA | $10.97 | Near-term / short-term trend |
| Weekly | 40-Week SMA | $12.19 | Medium-term trend |
| Weekly | 80-Week SMA | $12.93 | Cyclical trend (business cycle) |
| Weekly | 200-Week SMA | $13.33 | Secular trend (multi-year) |
| Monthly | 10-Month SMA | $11.98 | Near-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 20-Month SMA | $12.80 | Medium-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 40-Month SMA | $12.98 | Secular monthly trend |
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
| Price Level | Type | Volume Ratio | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| $11.80 | resistance | 1.17x | 3 months ago |
| $13.00 | resistance | 1.38x | 4 months ago |
| $14.40 | resistance | 1.78x | 7 months ago |
| $15.90 | resistance | 1.43x | 8 months ago |
| Timeframe | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | 0.74% | 0.12% | 60.87% | 5.03% | -2.66% |
| 1 Day | 0.58% | 0.36% | 56.52% | 8.78% | -7.84% |
| 1 Week | -0.01% | 0.80% | 54.55% | 12.47% | -11.15% |
| 2 Weeks | -0.02% | -0.25% | 45.45% | 14.68% | -7.69% |
| 1 Month | -0.89% | 0.28% | 54.55% | 16.29% | -19.88% |
Next earnings: November 3, 2026 (22 days away)
Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).
| Day | Avg Return | Win Rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | -0.14% | 46.4% | 267 |
| Tuesday | -0.09% | 45.9% | 296 |
| Wednesday | 0.12% | 54.4% | 294 |
| Thursday | -0.02% | 48.4% | 287 |
| Friday | 0.00% | 47.4% | 287 |
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 61.8%
Total insider ownership: 5.5%
Founder-led management: Alexandre Saigh (Co-Founder, CEO, Senior Managing Partner & Director), Olympio Matarazzo (Senior Managing Partner & Chairman)
| Total Filings | 6 |
|---|---|
| Net Value | -$165,774.918 |
| Net Shares Change | 227,500 |
| % of Float | 0.4% |
| C-Suite Filings | 1 |
| Clusters Detected | 0 |
| Name | Title | Net Value | Filings | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | +$2.7M | 5 | 5 buy | |
| D'Ippolito Marco Nicola | CEO of Global Private Markets | -$165,774.918 | 1 | 1 sell |
| Date | Insider | Title | Net Value | Price After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | D'Ippolito Marco Nicola | CEO of Global Private Markets | -$165,774.918 | Transaction at $11.43, now +2.1% |
| 2026-06-05 | Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | +$1.1M | Transaction at $11.29, now +3.3% | |
| 2026-06-03 | Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | +$349,950 | Transaction at $11.66, now +0.0% | |
| 2026-06-01 | Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | +$344,400 | Transaction at $11.48, now +1.7% | |
| 2026-05-28 | Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | +$341,850 | Transaction at $11.39, now +2.4% | |
| 2026-05-22 | Neto Olimpio Matarazzo | +$502,951.5 | Transaction at $11.18, now +4.4% |
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Patria Investments Ltd (PAX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.
Get the full AI Consult analysis for PAX on Trend Edge →