NFG — National Fuel Gas Company

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates NFG Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 21, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction21
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About National Fuel Gas Company

National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil. It also builds, owns, and operates gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$78.66
Market Cap$7.43B
Float93.7M
Shares Outstanding95.0M
P/E (Forward)9.79
P/E (TTM)10.89
Price/Sales (TTM)2.96
vs. Analyst Target+18.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin26.86%
Operating Margin (TTM)40.07%
Revenue (TTM)$2.51B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-11.60%
Dividend Rate2.2%
Analyst Target Price$93.00 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.55B -$124M $568M $318M
2021 $1.74B $364M $760M $960M
2022 $2.19B $566M $903M $1.18B
2023 $2.17B $477M $848M $1.18B
2024 $1.94B $77.5M $818M $683M
2025 $2.28B $519M $1.51B $1.31B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $456M $107M
Dec 2025 $652M $182M
Mar 2026 $858M $248M
Jun 2026 $537M $139M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.3%
Institutional Ownership85.3%
Short Float5.3%
% of All Funds Holding7.37%
Number of Funds Holding648

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$80.72Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$83.53Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$83.49Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$67.61Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$82.75Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$82.90Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$69.80Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$83.00 resistance 1.12x 0 months ago
$84.00 resistance 1.26x 4 months ago
$94.00 resistance 1.05x 5 months ago
$75.00 support 1.29x 18 months ago
$71.00 support 1.10x 19 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.09% 0.03% 51.64% 3.98% -3.15%
1 Day 0.30% 0.22% 54.10% 7.71% -9.07%
1 Week 0.57% 0.59% 58.20% 11.51% -11.78%
2 Weeks 0.79% 0.73% 56.56% 14.77% -11.64%
1 Month 1.43% 1.30% 54.92% 17.73% -21.16%

Next earnings: November 4, 2026 (24 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.0%49.0%51
Feb0.4%58.8%51
Mar1.6%66.7%51
Apr1.2%52.9%51
May1.2%51.0%51
Jun1.2%54.9%51
Jul0.4%56.9%51
Aug1.4%62.7%51
Sep-0.4%47.1%51
Oct0.1%50.0%50
Nov1.4%58.0%50
Dec0.8%52.9%51

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.03% 47.9% 2402
Tuesday 0.06% 47.3% 2605
Wednesday 0.02% 46.0% 2606
Thursday 0.01% 45.8% 2556
Friday 0.07% 47.5% 2541

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 85.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings12
Net Value-$257,859.893
Net Shares Change653
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings12
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Bauer David P President and CEO -$184,028.665 3 3 sell
Del Vecchio Joseph N President, NFG Supply Corp. -$60,923.49 3 3 sell
Krebs Martin A Chief Information Officer +$8,922.962 4 4 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-03 – 2025-12-09 9 3 -$248,568.875 9 C-suite
2026-09-17 – 2026-09-17 3 3 -$9,291.018 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-09-17 Krebs Martin A Chief Information Officer +$6,767.437 Transaction at $83.55, now -5.9%
2026-09-17 Del Vecchio Joseph N President, NFG Supply Corp. -$1,304.24 Transaction at $81.52, now -3.5%
2026-09-17 Bauer David P President and CEO -$14,754.215 Transaction at $81.52, now -3.5%
2025-12-09 Krebs Martin A Chief Information Officer +N/A N/A
2025-12-09 Del Vecchio Joseph N President, NFG Supply Corp. -$49,368 Transaction at $82.28, now -4.4%
2025-12-09 Bauer David P President and CEO -$51,754.12 Transaction at $82.28, now -4.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NFG on Trend Edge →