MWA — Mueller Water Products

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MWA Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 31, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction31
Actionability0 (no mans land)

Key signals behind this score

About Mueller Water Products

Mueller Water Products, Inc. manufactures and markets products and services for the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water used by municipalities, and the residential and non-residential construction industries in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$24.94
Market Cap$3.92B
Float154.8M
Shares Outstanding156.1M
P/E (Forward)15.34
P/E (TTM)17.82
Price/Sales (TTM)2.65
vs. Analyst Target+24.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin15.02%
Operating Margin (TTM)23.16%
Revenue (TTM)$1.48B
Earnings Growth (YoY)30.30%
Dividend Rate0.3%
Analyst Target Price$31.00 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $964M $72.0M $328M $177M
2021 $1.11B $70.4M $359M $177M
2022 $1.25B $76.6M $364M $176M
2023 $1.28B $85.5M $380M $189M
2024 $1.31B $116M $459M $250M
2025 $1.43B $192M $517M $301M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $381M $52.6M
Dec 2025 $318M $43.2M
Mar 2026 $384M $59.1M
Jun 2026 $396M $67.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.1%
Institutional Ownership103.3%
Short Float3.1%
% of All Funds Holding4.84%
Number of Funds Holding426

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$25.44Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$26.43Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$25.81Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$20.19Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$26.17Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$25.65Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$21.41Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$22.50 support 1.20x 17 months ago
$18.00 support 1.22x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (82 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.12% -0.09% 46.34% 12.08% -19.53%
1 Day -0.33% 0.47% 52.44% 16.68% -17.77%
1 Week -0.92% -1.15% 45.12% 24.16% -27.01%
2 Weeks -1.23% -0.43% 46.34% 29.05% -38.39%
1 Month -0.27% 1.07% 54.32% 27.53% -44.55%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.7%35.0%20
Feb-0.7%60.0%20
Mar3.4%60.0%20
Apr2.9%50.0%20
May1.1%40.0%20
Jun-0.4%47.6%21
Jul1.2%61.9%21
Aug-0.1%65.0%20
Sep0.8%50.0%20
Oct1.3%50.0%20
Nov1.0%55.0%20
Dec2.8%65.0%20

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.15% 46.3% 956
Tuesday 0.09% 47.6% 1045
Wednesday 0.04% 49.2% 1045
Thursday 0.09% 50.0% 1025
Friday 0.20% 52.3% 1020

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 103.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings15
Net Value-$3.3M
Net Shares Change-126,981
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings6
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
ZAKAS MARIETTA EDMUNDS Former Officer and Director -$1.4M 1 N/A
McAndrew Paul President and CEO -$1.1M 1 N/A
Helms Todd P SVP and CHRO -$748,043.694 3 1 sell
SENGSTACK GREGG C +$739,415 1 1 buy
Heinrichs Steven S -$276,943.096 1 1 sell
Carroll Chason A SVP, GC, CCO and Corp Sec -$89,264.56 1 1 sell
Smith Suzanne G -$54,748.53 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-03 – 2025-12-10 3 3 -$1.0M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-26 SENGSTACK GREGG C +$739,415 Transaction at $29.58, now -15.7%
2026-08-10 McAndrew Paul President and CEO -$1.1M Transaction at $26.39, now -5.5%
2025-12-05 Helms Todd P SVP and CHRO -$133,543.278 Transaction at $20.49, now +21.7%
2025-12-03 Carroll Chason A SVP, GC, CCO and Corp Sec -$89,264.56 Transaction at $24.08, now +3.6%
2025-08-29 Heinrichs Steven S -$276,943.096 Transaction at $26.86, now -7.2%
2026-05-29 ZAKAS MARIETTA EDMUNDS Former Officer and Director -$1.4M Transaction at $25.26, now -1.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Mueller Water Products (MWA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MWA on Trend Edge →