MSM — MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company's metalworking and MRO products include cutting tools, abrasives, machining fluids, measuring instruments, metalworking products, machinery and accessories, tooling components, faste… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$107.49
Market Cap$5.92B
Float45.6M
Shares Outstanding55.8M
P/E (Forward)20.58
P/E (TTM)28.49
Price/Sales (TTM)1.54
vs. Analyst Target-13.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin5.42%
Operating Margin (TTM)7.33%
Revenue (TTM)$3.83B
Earnings Growth (YoY)8.60%
Dividend Rate3.5%
Analyst Target Price$93.50 (9 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $3.19B $251M $1.27B $442M
2021 $3.24B $217M $1.33B $390M
2022 $3.69B $340M $1.56B $556M
2023 $4.01B $343M $1.64B $553M
2024 $3.82B $259M $1.57B $451M
2025 $3.77B $199M $1.54B $378M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
May 2025 $971M $56.8M
Aug 2025 $978M $56.5M
Nov 2025 $966M $51.8M
Feb 2026 $918M $41.8M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership18.9%
Institutional Ownership88.4%
Short Float5.6%
% of All Funds Holding4.72%
Number of Funds Holding388

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$99.70Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$91.38Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$86.46Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$88.08Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$92.05Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$86.40Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$89.43Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$89.00 support 1.02x 0 months ago
$76.00 support 1.24x 15 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.08% 0.00% 49.59% 5.08% -3.49%
1 Day 0.29% 0.00% 49.59% 15.74% -11.63%
1 Week 1.24% 0.54% 53.72% 15.45% -19.78%
2 Weeks 1.46% 0.87% 56.20% 27.07% -20.86%
1 Month 2.33% 2.50% 58.68% 35.32% -31.59%

Next earnings: July 7, 2026 (40 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.5%58.1%31
Feb0.1%64.5%31
Mar2.3%61.3%31
Apr2.2%51.6%31
May2.6%53.3%30
Jun-2.2%50.0%30
Jul-0.1%53.3%30
Aug-3.4%40.0%30
Sep-0.3%43.3%30
Oct2.4%60.0%30
Nov4.4%70.0%30
Dec3.1%73.3%30

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.07% 46.9% 1439
Tuesday 0.07% 50.6% 1574
Wednesday 0.11% 50.4% 1571
Thursday 0.01% 49.9% 1540
Friday 0.15% 52.6% 1534

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 88.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 18.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value+$6.4M
Net Shares Change285,636
% of Float0.6%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
JACOBSON MITCHELL +$17.4M 2 2 buy
GERSHWIND ERIK Chief Executive Officer +$6.5M 1 1 sell
PELLER PHILIP +$420,873.24 2 1 buy, 1 sell
Seseri Rudina -$156,294.18 1 1 sell
Shacklett Kimberly SVP, Sales and Customer Success -$34,456.01 2 N/A
Kaufmann Michael C +$2,078.282 1 1 buy, 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-07-07 – 2025-07-11 4 3 +$6.3M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-09-17 Kaufmann Michael C +$2,078.282 Transaction at $83.49, now +28.7%
2025-11-17 PELLER PHILIP +$600,873.24 Transaction at $90.14, now +19.2%
2025-11-03 JACOBSON MITCHELL +$15.4M Transaction at $84.75, now +26.8%
2026-02-02 Seseri Rudina -$156,294.18 Transaction at $86.83, now +23.8%
2025-11-20 JACOBSON MITCHELL +$1.9M Transaction at $84.96, now +26.5%
2025-07-07 GERSHWIND ERIK Chief Executive Officer +$6.5M Transaction at $86.30, now +24.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc (MSM) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MSM on Trend Edge →