MGPI — MGP Ingredients Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MGPI Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 40, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction40
Actionability0 (extended)

Key signals behind this score

About MGP Ingredients Inc

MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients worldwide. It operates in three segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Solutions segment processes corn and other grains, including rye, barley, wheat, barley malt, and milo into food grade alcohol and distillery co-products, such as dried distillers' grain; and offers food-grade alcohol for bever… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$17.95
Market Cap$381M
Float14.5M
Shares Outstanding21.4M
P/E (Forward)13.57
Price/Sales (TTM)0.76
vs. Analyst Target+54.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-48.40%
Operating Margin (TTM)14.80%
Revenue (TTM)$500M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-17.70%
Dividend Rate0.5%
Analyst Target Price$27.80 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $396M $40.3M $98.8M $67.2M
2021 $627M $91.3M $199M $144M
2022 $782M $109M $253M $167M
2023 $837M $107M $305M $171M
2024 $704M $34.7M $286M $98.9M
2025 $536M -$108M $199M -$69.2M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $131M $15.4M
Dec 2025 $138M -$135M
Mar 2026 $106M -$135M
Jun 2026 $124M $12.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership32.5%
Institutional Ownership73.0%
Short Float6.1%
% of All Funds Holding1.69%
Number of Funds Holding149

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$17.57Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$20.24Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$24.48Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$62.20Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$20.02Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$24.68Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$54.69Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$24.70 resistance 1.03x 5 months ago
$32.60 resistance 1.16x 16 months ago
$39.70 resistance 1.21x 18 months ago
$46.00 resistance 1.43x 19 months ago
$83.00 resistance 2.47x 21 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (118 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.29% 0.00% 47.46% 7.63% -17.75%
1 Day -0.11% -0.15% 43.22% 15.86% -24.16%
1 Week -1.14% -0.01% 46.61% 22.42% -29.67%
2 Weeks -1.66% -1.87% 44.07% 44.49% -44.20%
1 Month 0.42% 0.65% 51.28% 57.72% -43.31%

Next earnings: October 17, 2026 (53 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.9%50.0%38
Feb-2.9%44.7%38
Mar0.8%52.6%38
Apr6.7%65.8%38
May2.0%47.4%38
Jun4.8%65.8%38
Jul-1.9%42.1%38
Aug-1.1%45.9%37
Sep-1.2%48.6%37
Oct-1.8%48.6%37
Nov4.3%63.2%38
Dec3.0%65.8%38

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 44.0% 1795
Tuesday 0.18% 45.2% 1955
Wednesday 0.01% 44.8% 1953
Thursday -0.00% 43.6% 1917
Friday 0.17% 46.0% 1907

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 73.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 32.5%

Founder-led management: Paul A. Lux (Vice President of Distilling Solutions Sales)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-457,535
% of Float-3.2%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Seaberg Karen -$7.5M 1 1 sell
Kaplan Caroline Lux -$2.5M 2 2 sell
Lux Paul S. -$586,221.9 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-24 Lux Paul S. -$586,221.9 Transaction at $17.76, now +1.0%
2026-05-28 Kaplan Caroline Lux -$1.1M Transaction at $18.00, now -0.3%
2025-12-10 Seaberg Karen -$7.5M Transaction at $24.66, now -27.2%
2025-11-20 Kaplan Caroline Lux -$1.4M Transaction at $23.56, now -23.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MGPI on Trend Edge →