MGPI — MGP Ingredients Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About MGP Ingredients Inc

MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients worldwide. It operates in three segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Solutions segment processes corn and other grains, including rye, barley, wheat, barley malt, and milo into food grade alcohol and distillery co-products, such as dried distillers' grain; and offers food-grade alcohol for bever… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$18.05
Market Cap$387M
Float14.4M
Shares Outstanding21.4M
P/E (Forward)11.81
Price/Sales (TTM)0.74
vs. Analyst Target+57.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-45.97%
Operating Margin (TTM)5.94%
Revenue (TTM)$521M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-33.60%
Dividend Rate0.5%
Analyst Target Price$28.40 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $396M $40.3M $98.8M $67.2M
2021 $627M $91.3M $199M $144M
2022 $782M $109M $253M $167M
2023 $837M $107M $305M $171M
2024 $704M $34.7M $286M $98.9M
2025 $536M -$108M $199M -$69.2M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $145M $14.4M
Sep 2025 $131M $15.4M
Dec 2025 $138M -$135M
Mar 2026 $106M -$135M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership32.6%
Institutional Ownership73.8%
Short Float7.2%
% of All Funds Holding1.59%
Number of Funds Holding131

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$18.80Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$23.26Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$28.42Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$68.55Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$22.54Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$28.72Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$60.79Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$24.70 resistance 1.03x 2 months ago
$32.60 resistance 1.16x 13 months ago
$39.70 resistance 1.21x 15 months ago
$46.00 resistance 1.43x 16 months ago
$83.00 resistance 2.47x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (117 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.31% 0.00% 47.01% 7.63% -17.75%
1 Day -0.06% -0.10% 43.59% 15.86% -24.16%
1 Week -1.08% 0.00% 47.01% 22.42% -29.67%
2 Weeks -1.64% -1.85% 44.44% 44.49% -44.20%
1 Month 0.53% 0.89% 51.72% 57.72% -43.31%

Next earnings: July 18, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.9%50.0%38
Feb-2.9%44.7%38
Mar0.8%52.6%38
Apr6.7%65.8%38
May2.3%48.6%37
Jun5.0%67.6%37
Jul-2.0%40.5%37
Aug-1.1%45.9%37
Sep-1.2%48.6%37
Oct-1.8%48.6%37
Nov4.3%63.2%38
Dec3.0%65.8%38

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 44.0% 1783
Tuesday 0.18% 45.2% 1941
Wednesday 0.01% 44.7% 1939
Thursday -0.00% 43.6% 1903
Friday 0.17% 45.9% 1895

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 73.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 32.6%

Founder-led management: Paul A. Lux (Vice President of Distilling Solutions Sales)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-364,535
% of Float-2.5%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Seaberg Karen -$7.5M 1 1 sell
Kaplan Caroline Lux -$1.4M 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-12-10 Seaberg Karen -$7.5M Transaction at $24.66, now -26.8%
2025-11-20 Kaplan Caroline Lux -$1.4M Transaction at $23.56, now -23.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MGPI on Trend Edge →