Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
About Main Street Capital Corporation
Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company and a small business investment company specializing in direct and indirect investments. In direct investments, the firm specializes in private equity capital to lower middle market companies. The firm specializes in recapitalizations, loan, growth capital, mezzanine debt, corporate carveouts, family estate planning, management buyouts, refinancing, private loan, private credit sol… Read full Trend Edge analysis →
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Asset Management
Exchange: NYSE
IPO Date: October 5, 2007
Headquarters: 1300 Post Oak Boulevard, Houston, TX, United States, 77056
Founder-Led: Yes — Vincent D. Foster (Chairman of Board of Directors)
Key Metrics
Current Price
$50.45
Market Cap
$4.71B
Float
86.4M
Shares Outstanding
93.0M
P/E (Forward)
13.33
P/E (TTM)
10.67
Price/Sales (TTM)
8.32
vs. Analyst Target
+23.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin
87.11%
Operating Margin (TTM)
86.52%
Revenue (TTM)
$566M
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.00%
Dividend Rate
4.4%
Analyst Target Price
$62.17 (4 analysts)
Financial History
Annual Revenue & Earnings History
Year
Revenue
Net Income
Gross Profit
EBITDA
2020
$223M
$29.4M
$51.0M
$15.8M
2021
$411M
$331M
$411M
$844M
2022
$331M
$242M
$331M
$318M
2023
$612M
$428M
$510M
$451M
2024
$725M
$508M
$601M
$539M
2025
$645M
$493M
$645M
$527M
Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income
Quarter
Revenue
Net Income
Jun 2025
$177M
$123M
Sep 2025
$184M
$124M
Dec 2025
$203M
$131M
Mar 2026
$164M
$49.0M
Ownership & Float
Insider Ownership
4.0%
Institutional Ownership
25.4%
Short Float
10.2%
% of All Funds Holding
4.79%
Number of Funds Holding
394
Current Moving Averages
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
Timeframe
SMA
Value
Trend Context
Weekly
10-Week SMA
$53.67
Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly
40-Week SMA
$59.22
Medium-term trend
Weekly
80-Week SMA
$58.55
Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly
200-Week SMA
$49.17
Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly
10-Month SMA
$58.51
Near-term monthly trend
Monthly
20-Month SMA
$58.20
Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly
40-Month SMA
$51.26
Secular monthly trend
Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume
creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative
volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
Price Level
Type
Volume Ratio
Age
$63.00
resistance
1.10x
2 months ago
Historical Earnings Reactions (74 events)
Timeframe
Avg Return
Median
Win Rate
Best
Worst
Gap
0.05%
0.10%
60.81%
2.75%
-9.77%
1 Day
0.85%
1.00%
74.32%
4.59%
-4.18%
1 Week
1.37%
1.45%
66.22%
14.21%
-6.59%
2 Weeks
0.62%
0.96%
59.46%
24.92%
-26.88%
1 Month
1.25%
0.70%
58.11%
28.22%
-46.78%
Next earnings: May 7, 2026
Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns
Monthly Seasonality
Month
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Jan
1.3%
52.6%
19
Feb
0.9%
63.2%
19
Mar
-2.3%
52.6%
19
Apr
3.2%
68.4%
19
May
-0.2%
38.9%
18
Jun
1.6%
72.2%
18
Jul
2.2%
72.2%
18
Aug
0.8%
61.1%
18
Sep
-1.9%
38.9%
18
Oct
0.1%
50.0%
18
Nov
3.8%
89.5%
19
Dec
0.7%
52.6%
19
Day-of-Week Tendencies
Day
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Monday
-0.01%
54.1%
878
Tuesday
0.05%
51.6%
960
Wednesday
0.03%
52.1%
960
Thursday
-0.02%
51.1%
940
Friday
0.17%
55.5%
937
Top Institutional Holders
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 25.4%
Insider Transactions — Smart Summary
Total insider ownership: 4.0%
Founder-led management: Vincent D. Foster (Chairman of Board of Directors)
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Main Street Capital Corporation
(MAIN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model.
The analysis covers five layers:
technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum,
volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals),
qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics),
insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions),
share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and
fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit,
stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward.
Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup,
AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.