ITW — Illinois Tool Works Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Illinois Tool Works Inc

Illinois Tool Works Inc. provides industrial products and equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and South America. It operates through seven segments: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM segment offers plastic and metal components, fasteners, and assemblies for automobiles, light tr… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$250.29
Market Cap$71.90B
Float260.6M
Shares Outstanding287.7M
P/E (Forward)21.55
P/E (TTM)23.21
Price/Sales (TTM)4.43
vs. Analyst Target+9.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin19.32%
Operating Margin (TTM)25.67%
Revenue (TTM)$16.22B
Earnings Growth (YoY)11.80%
Dividend Rate6.4%
Analyst Target Price$274.54 (20 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $12.57B $2.11B $5.20B $3.06B
2021 $14.46B $2.69B $5.97B $3.66B
2022 $15.93B $3.03B $6.50B $4.18B
2023 $16.11B $2.96B $6.79B $4.04B
2024 $15.90B $3.49B $6.94B $5.11B
2025 $16.04B $3.07B $7.08B $4.65B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $4.05B $755M
Sep 2025 $4.06B $821M
Dec 2025 $4.09B $790M
Mar 2026 $4.02B $768M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.4%
Institutional Ownership86.6%
Short Float3.5%
% of All Funds Holding22.22%
Number of Funds Holding1,826

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$258.97Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$260.39Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$257.14Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$245.93Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$258.54Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$256.85Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$251.78Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$287.00 resistance 1.17x 1 months ago
$247.00 support 1.17x 3 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.03% 0.17% 59.50% 2.62% -5.82%
1 Day 0.04% 0.02% 50.41% 4.65% -6.33%
1 Week 0.56% 0.52% 57.85% 12.65% -11.43%
2 Weeks 1.09% 1.37% 60.33% 16.08% -19.14%
1 Month 1.72% 1.93% 67.50% 17.79% -15.89%

Next earnings: July 29, 2026 (61 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.1%51.0%51
Feb2.3%64.7%51
Mar-0.2%35.3%51
Apr3.7%72.5%51
May0.9%54.0%50
Jun0.6%50.0%50
Jul0.4%50.0%50
Aug1.2%54.0%50
Sep-0.7%46.0%50
Oct0.6%46.0%50
Nov2.8%74.0%50
Dec1.9%54.9%51

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 47.2% 2384
Tuesday 0.05% 47.7% 2587
Wednesday 0.07% 47.4% 2587
Thursday 0.07% 47.8% 2537
Friday 0.10% 51.1% 2524

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 86.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value-$3.5M
Net Shares Change-82,210
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
SANTI ERNEST SCOTT -$24.6M 1 1 sell
Lawler Mary Katherine SVP and Chief HR Officer -$2.2M 1 1 sell
SMITH DAVID BYRON JR +$1.9M 2 2 buy
SCHEUNEMAN RANDALL J VP and Chief Accounting Officer -$932,418.16 1 1 sell
Beck Axel Executive Vice President -$382,148.05 1 1 sell
STROBEL PAMELA B -$373,025.25 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-06 – 2026-02-10 3 3 -$27.2M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-12-12 SMITH DAVID BYRON JR +$1.7M Transaction at $250.13, now +0.1%
2026-02-09 Beck Axel Executive Vice President -$382,148.05 Transaction at $216.97, now +15.4%
2026-02-10 Lawler Mary Katherine SVP and Chief HR Officer -$2.2M Transaction at $227.63, now +10.0%
2025-06-04 SMITH DAVID BYRON JR +$210,291.52 Transaction at $241.16, now +3.8%
2026-02-06 SANTI ERNEST SCOTT -$24.6M Transaction at $217.57, now +15.0%
2025-09-15 SCHEUNEMAN RANDALL J VP and Chief Accounting Officer -$932,418.16 Transaction at $196.54, now +27.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ITW on Trend Edge →