HTGC — Hercules Capital, Inc.

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates HTGC Bearish with a Setup Score of 30, net conviction 20, actionability 44. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score30
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction20
Actionability44 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Hercules Capital, Inc.

Hercules Capital, Inc. is a business development company. The firm specializing in providing private equity, venture debt, and growth capital to privately held venture capital-backed companies at all stages of development from mid venture to expansion stage including select publicly listed companies and select special opportunity companies that require additional capital to fund acquisitions, recapitalizations and refinancing and established-stag… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$17.59
Market Cap$3.19B
Float171.5M
Shares Outstanding187.2M
P/E (Forward)8.67
P/E (TTM)8.35
Price/Sales (TTM)5.63
vs. Analyst Target+9.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin67.68%
Operating Margin (TTM)83.19%
Revenue (TTM)$566M
Earnings Growth (YoY)54.70%
Dividend Rate1.9%
Analyst Target Price$19.17 (9 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $357M $227M $298M $228M
2021 $310M $174M $255M $174M
2022 $239M $102M $185M $102M
2023 $494M $337M $426M $338M
2024 $431M $263M $354M $263M
2025 $547M $340M $477M $365M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $169M $120M
Dec 2025 $158M $90.8M
Mar 2026 $95.9M $42.5M
Jun 2026 $157M $130M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.0%
Institutional Ownership36.3%
Short Float6.4%
% of All Funds Holding3.79%
Number of Funds Holding333

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$16.45Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$16.40Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$17.44Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$17.19Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$16.56Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$17.79Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$17.86Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$14.40 support 1.02x 3 months ago
$14.00 support 1.89x 4 months ago
$18.30 resistance 2.75x 5 months ago
$18.90 resistance 1.26x 9 months ago
$20.90 resistance 1.60x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (85 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.68% 0.54% 57.65% 10.65% -18.60%
1 Day 0.93% 0.30% 55.29% 17.87% -11.73%
1 Week 0.20% 0.08% 51.76% 15.21% -15.92%
2 Weeks -0.73% -0.41% 43.53% 14.91% -19.36%
1 Month -2.54% -2.04% 39.29% 22.25% -55.41%

Next earnings: October 9, 2026 (44 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.4%57.1%21
Feb-1.0%57.1%21
Mar-2.9%52.4%21
Apr3.7%71.4%21
May-0.1%47.6%21
Jun0.4%71.4%21
Jul3.8%72.7%22
Aug-1.9%47.6%21
Sep-0.5%42.9%21
Oct1.3%52.4%21
Nov-0.2%42.9%21
Dec2.6%66.7%21

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 49.7% 1000
Tuesday 0.05% 49.6% 1095
Wednesday 0.06% 51.6% 1095
Thursday -0.04% 47.8% 1074
Friday 0.09% 53.4% 1070

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 36.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings23
Net Value+$845,343
Net Shares Change188,167
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Meyer Seth H Chief Financial Officer +$200,620 1 1 buy
Theodosopoulos Nikos +$104,998.95 1 1 buy
Loo Wade +$104,998.95 1 1 buy
Aguirre DeAnne +$104,998.95 1 1 buy
Bluestein Scott Chief Executive Officer +$100,450 1 1 buy
Randhawa Paramjeet K +$87,067.1 2 2 buy
Follmann Christian Chief Operating Officer +$73,400 1 1 buy
BADAVAS ROBERT P +$52,492.3 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-19 – 2026-03-05 15 10 +$2.1M 5 C-suite
2026-03-30 – 2026-03-30 7 7 +$618,866.2

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-05 Follmann Christian Chief Operating Officer +$73,400 Transaction at $14.68, now +19.8%
2026-02-27 Meyer Seth H Chief Financial Officer +$200,620 Transaction at $14.33, now +22.7%
2026-02-27 Botelho Kiersten Zaza Chief Legal Officer & CCO +$18,473 Transaction at $14.21, now +23.8%
2026-02-27 Bluestein Scott Chief Executive Officer +$100,450 Transaction at $14.35, now +22.6%
2026-03-30 Theodosopoulos Nikos +$104,998.95 Transaction at $14.35, now +22.6%
2026-03-30 Randhawa Paramjeet K +$41,988.1 Transaction at $14.35, now +22.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for HTGC on Trend Edge →