GEG — Great Elm Group Inc

✨ Hidden Gem Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Great Elm Group Inc

Great Elm Group, Inc., an asset management company, focuses on the credit, real estate, specialty finance, and other alternative strategies businesses. It also engages in business development and investment management activities. The company was formerly known as Great Elm Capital Group, Inc. and changed its name to Great Elm Group, Inc. in December 2020. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$2.16
Market Cap$67.1M
Float10.7M
Shares Outstanding31.4M
P/E (Forward)42.74
Price/Sales (TTM)2.94
vs. Analyst Target+756.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-100.48%
Operating Margin (TTM)-116.15%
Revenue (TTM)$22.8M
Earnings Growth (YoY)2.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$18.50

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $59.0M -$13.0M $6.8M $2.1M
2021 $60.9M -$7.3M $33.5M $655,000
2022 $4.5M -$14.9M -$2.1M -$8.2M
2023 $8.7M $27.7M -$1.5M $21.9M
2024 $17.8M -$1.4M $977,000 $4.6M
2025 $16.3M $12.9M -$108,000 $21.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $5.6M $13.6M
Sep 2025 $10.8M -$7.0M
Dec 2025 $3.0M -$15.8M
Mar 2026 $3.4M -$13.7M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership32.5%
Institutional Ownership40.1%
Short Float1.8%
% of All Funds Holding0.26%
Number of Funds Holding21

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$2.07Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$2.31Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$2.14Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$2.05Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$2.28Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$2.10Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$2.03Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$1.80 support 2.44x 19 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (107 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.71% 0.00% 42.99% 24.20% -22.91%
1 Day 1.05% 0.90% 54.21% 29.51% -28.05%
1 Week 0.92% 0.00% 49.53% 55.98% -36.54%
2 Weeks 1.40% 1.98% 56.07% 58.97% -43.75%
1 Month 4.65% 0.92% 52.83% 161.18% -40.96%

Next earnings: July 25, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.8%29.6%27
Feb-0.3%44.4%27
Mar-0.1%37.0%27
Apr-0.4%44.4%27
May7.0%53.8%26
Jun-3.5%34.6%26
Jul-2.1%40.7%27
Aug1.2%40.7%27
Sep-1.7%44.4%27
Oct-2.3%37.0%27
Nov8.6%51.9%27
Dec-3.3%33.3%27

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.41% 38.1% 1272
Tuesday 0.17% 42.1% 1391
Wednesday -0.06% 40.8% 1391
Thursday 0.14% 43.3% 1364
Friday 0.28% 45.6% 1360

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 40.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 32.5%

Founder-led management: Jason Reese (CEO & Executive Chairman)

Full insider transaction history and smart buy/sell sentiment summary available on Trend Edge.

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Great Elm Group Inc (GEG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for GEG on Trend Edge →