Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge Setup Score
Trend Edge rates FERG Bullish with a Setup Score of 23, net conviction 33, actionability 16. How the Setup Score works →
Total Setup Score
23
Directional Bias
Bullish
Net Conviction
33
Actionability
16 (in range)
Key signals behind this score
Fresh Trend Turn — 10wk turn 4w
80wk Uptrend — rising+above (sma 223 vs px 233)
200wk Uptrend — rising+above (sma 193 vs px 233)
Funds Accumulating — momZ +0.63 · 10.29→10.56
Seasonal Tailwind — november med 5.5% (mag 2/3) · posClose 75.00% (rel 2/3) · n16 ×0.5 = 4
Hidden Gem — stWatch 595
About Ferguson Plc
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. distributes essential water and air solutions to specialized professional in the United States and Canada. The company provides various products and services, including plumbing; pipe, valves, and fittings; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning; appliances; lighting; and water and wastewater solutions to residential and non-residential customers. Read full Trend Edge analysis →
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Industrial Distribution
Exchange: NYSE
IPO Date: January 5, 2010
Headquarters: 751 Lakefront Commons, Newport News, VA, United States, 23606
Hidden Gem: Yes — undiscovered relative to its market cap tier
Founder-Led: No
Key Metrics
Current Price
$232.67
Market Cap
$46.32B
Float
193.0M
Shares Outstanding
193.5M
P/E (Forward)
18.98
P/E (TTM)
23.92
Price/Sales (TTM)
1.47
vs. Analyst Target
+23.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin
6.32%
Operating Margin (TTM)
10.16%
Revenue (TTM)
$31.45B
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.90%
Dividend Rate
3.6%
Analyst Target Price
$287.85 (24 analysts)
Financial History
Annual Revenue & Earnings History
Year
Revenue
Net Income
Gross Profit
EBITDA
2021
$22.79B
$1.47B
$6.98B
$2.26B
2022
$28.57B
$2.12B
$8.76B
$3.12B
2023
$29.73B
$1.89B
$9.03B
$2.97B
2024
$29.64B
$1.74B
$9.05B
$2.98B
2025
$30.76B
$1.86B
$9.44B
$3.06B
2026
$8.75B
$666M
$2.71B
$898M
Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income
Quarter
Revenue
Net Income
Oct 2025
$8.17B
$570M
Jan 2026
$7.50B
$389M
Apr 2026
$7.47B
$414M
Jul 2026
$8.75B
$666M
Ownership & Float
Insider Ownership
1.8%
Institutional Ownership
99.9%
Short Float
1.4%
% of All Funds Holding
10.56%
Number of Funds Holding
929
Current Moving Averages
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
Timeframe
SMA
Value
Trend Context
Weekly
10-Week SMA
$236.99
Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly
40-Week SMA
$239.96
Medium-term trend
Weekly
80-Week SMA
$223.34
Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly
200-Week SMA
$193.40
Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly
10-Month SMA
$241.88
Near-term monthly trend
Monthly
20-Month SMA
$221.75
Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly
40-Month SMA
$204.49
Secular monthly trend
Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume
creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative
volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
Price Level
Type
Volume Ratio
Age
$252.00
resistance
2.43x
0 months ago
$184.00
support
1.04x
13 months ago
Historical Earnings Reactions (23 events)
Timeframe
Avg Return
Median
Win Rate
Best
Worst
Gap
-0.07%
0.00%
47.83%
4.04%
-4.23%
1 Day
-0.49%
-0.65%
39.13%
5.90%
-6.72%
1 Week
-0.45%
-0.53%
39.13%
13.06%
-8.96%
2 Weeks
-0.18%
-0.08%
50.00%
12.41%
-11.54%
1 Month
1.00%
3.38%
68.18%
20.28%
-14.62%
Next earnings: October 29, 2026 (63 days away)
Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns
Monthly Seasonality
Month
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Jan
2.1%
56.3%
16
Feb
3.5%
70.6%
17
Mar
-3.9%
29.4%
17
Apr
3.4%
64.7%
17
May
0.9%
47.1%
17
Jun
0.2%
41.2%
17
Jul
0.9%
52.9%
17
Aug
-0.2%
50.0%
16
Sep
1.6%
50.0%
16
Oct
1.9%
50.0%
16
Nov
5.1%
75.0%
16
Dec
2.9%
62.5%
16
Day-of-Week Tendencies
Day
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Monday
0.08%
25.7%
783
Tuesday
0.05%
24.7%
860
Wednesday
0.13%
25.6%
858
Thursday
0.14%
26.5%
843
Friday
-0.03%
24.6%
839
Top Institutional Holders
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 99.9%
Insider Transactions — Smart Summary
Total insider ownership: 1.8%
12-Month Insider Activity Summary
Total Filings
11
Net Value
-$14.3M
Net Shares Change
23,172
% of Float
0.0%
C-Suite Filings
11
Clusters Detected
1
Key Insiders
Name
Title
Net Value
Filings
Activity
Murphy Kevin Michael
President & Chief Executive Officer
Exhibit List - Exhibit 24.1 - Power of Attorney
-$4.9M
1
1 sell
Graham Ian T.
Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
Exhibit List - Exhibit 24.1 - Power of Attorney
-$2.1M
2
2 sell
Brundage William
Chief Financial Officer
-$1.7M
1
1 sell
Thees William T. Jr
Senior Vice President
-$1.4M
1
1 sell
Schlicher Jake
SVP of Strategic Development
-$1.4M
1
1 sell
Paisley James A.
Chief Digital and Information Officer
Exhibit List - Exhibit 24.1 - Power of Attorney
-$1.3M
1
1 sell
Winckler Richard
Chief Accounting Officer
-$474,491.155
2
2 sell
Stirrup Allison
Chief Human Resources Officer
-$398,256.379
1
1 sell
Transaction Clusters
Period
Filings
Insiders
Net Value
Seniority
2025-10-15 – 2025-10-17
11
9
-$14.3M
11 C-suite
Significant Filings
Date
Insider
Title
Net Value
Price After
2025-10-15
Thees William T. Jr
Senior Vice President
-$1.4M
Transaction at $233.01, now -0.1%
2025-10-15
Schlicher Jake
SVP of Strategic Development
-$1.4M
Transaction at $232.49, now +0.1%
2025-10-15
Paisley James A.
Chief Digital and Information Officer
Exhibit List - Exhibit 24.1 - Power of Attorney
-$1.3M
Transaction at $234.22, now -0.7%
2025-10-15
Murphy Kevin Michael
President & Chief Executive Officer
Exhibit List - Exhibit 24.1 - Power of Attorney
-$4.9M
Transaction at $232.80, now -0.1%
2025-10-15
Brundage William
Chief Financial Officer
-$1.7M
Transaction at $232.40, now +0.1%
2025-10-15
Graham Ian T.
Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
Exhibit List - Exhibit 24.1 - Power of Attorney
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(FERG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model.
The analysis covers five layers:
technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum,
volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals),
qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics),
insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions),
share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and
fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
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