EARN — Ellington Residential Mortgage

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Ellington Residential Mortgage

Ellington Credit Company, a closed-end management investment company, focuses on generating current yields and risk-adjusted total returns by investing primarily in collateralized loan obligations. It invests in mezzanine debt and equity tranches. The company was formerly known as Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT and changed its name to Ellington Credit Company in April 2024. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$4.92
Market Cap$179M
Float37.0M
Shares Outstanding37.6M
P/E (Forward)4.75
P/E (TTM)17.04
Price/Sales (TTM)5.36
vs. Analyst Target+6.7% to analyst PT
Operating Margin (TTM)65.25%
Revenue (TTM)-$52.4M
Earnings Growth (YoY)18.50%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$5.25 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $25.9M $20.1M $24.6M $34.4M
2021 -$557,000 -$6.3M -$1.9M -$6.3M
2022 $20.2M -$30.2M $18.8M -$13.1M
2023 $55.4M $4.6M $10.1M $4.6M
2024 $50.7M $6.6M $15.9M $7.1M
2025 $42.6M -$14.5M $36.4M -$8.4M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Mar 2025 $11.9M $10.2M
Sep 2025 $15.4M $4.3M
Dec 2025 $14.3M -$21.1M
Mar 2026 $12.3M -$32.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.4%
Institutional Ownership6.2%
Short Float4.4%
% of All Funds Holding0.45%
Number of Funds Holding37

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$4.72Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$5.13Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$5.58Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$6.35Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$5.14Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$5.62Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$6.17Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$4.50 support 1.06x 0 months ago
$5.40 resistance 1.46x 2 months ago
$6.40 resistance 1.88x 13 months ago
$6.90 resistance 1.28x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (52 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.13% 0.09% 51.92% 8.01% -3.69%
1 Day 0.32% -0.03% 46.15% 8.71% -4.51%
1 Week 0.70% 0.98% 52.94% 11.01% -9.27%
2 Weeks 1.38% 1.25% 58.82% 11.74% -7.71%
1 Month 1.03% 1.63% 56.86% 19.93% -26.02%

Next earnings: August 8, 2026 (70 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.8%53.8%13
Feb0.1%46.2%13
Mar-4.4%53.8%13
Apr5.0%61.5%13
May-0.3%50.0%12
Jun-1.5%46.2%13
Jul1.4%69.2%13
Aug-2.1%30.8%13
Sep-4.1%23.1%13
Oct-1.3%46.2%13
Nov4.7%84.6%13
Dec-3.7%15.4%13

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.17% 47.2% 616
Tuesday 0.02% 50.3% 678
Wednesday -0.07% 47.0% 672
Thursday 0.00% 48.5% 660
Friday 0.11% 54.4% 660

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 6.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value+$38,350
Net Shares Change17,536
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
SIMON RONALD I +$59,843.426 1 1 buy
Borenstein Gregory Morris Portfolio Manager +$38,350 2 2 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-10-02 Borenstein Gregory Morris Portfolio Manager +$15,870 Transaction at $5.29, now -7.0%
2025-09-09 Borenstein Gregory Morris Portfolio Manager +$22,480 Transaction at $5.62, now -12.5%
2025-10-02 SIMON RONALD I +$59,843.426 Transaction at $5.68, now -13.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for EARN on Trend Edge →