CG — Carlyle Group Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates CG Bearish with a Setup Score of 52, net conviction 24, actionability 114. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score52
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction24
Actionability114 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Carlyle Group Inc

The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and ventur… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$49.14
Market Cap$17.10B
Float258.1M
Shares Outstanding356.3M
P/E (Forward)13.39
P/E (TTM)49.99
Price/Sales (TTM)6.11
vs. Analyst Target+18.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin13.01%
Operating Margin (TTM)26.86%
Revenue (TTM)$2.80B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-57.50%
Dividend Rate1.4%
Analyst Target Price$58.18 (17 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $2.13B $348M $1.88B $632M
2021 $5.82B $2.97B $5.53B $4.08B
2022 $3.68B $1.23B $3.36B $1.72B
2023 $1.87B -$608M $1.32B -$420M
2024 $4.09B $1.02B $3.40B $1.58B
2025 $4.90B $809M $3.23B $1.34B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $781M $900,000
Dec 2025 $1.84B $358M
Mar 2026 $190M -$132M
Jun 2026 $1.15B $137M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership26.5%
Institutional Ownership65.0%
Short Float6.5%
% of All Funds Holding6.61%
Number of Funds Holding581

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$46.20Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$50.95Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$51.60Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$43.84Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$50.56Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$51.58Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$45.98Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$50.00 resistance 1.09x 2 months ago
$58.00 resistance 1.27x 5 months ago
$62.00 resistance 1.10x 9 months ago
$39.00 support 1.02x 14 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (58 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.25% 0.13% 51.72% 5.62% -3.56%
1 Day -0.30% -0.17% 48.28% 8.64% -5.69%
1 Week 0.48% -0.30% 48.28% 26.90% -11.87%
2 Weeks -1.01% -2.39% 34.48% 27.23% -13.32%
1 Month -1.38% -3.74% 35.09% 38.79% -28.08%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan5.1%57.1%14
Feb-2.4%35.7%14
Mar-2.6%42.9%14
Apr1.0%50.0%14
May0.4%42.9%14
Jun1.7%60.0%15
Jul9.2%86.7%15
Aug-6.3%21.4%14
Sep-2.8%35.7%14
Oct2.4%50.0%14
Nov3.3%64.3%14
Dec2.2%57.1%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.09% 50.1% 675
Tuesday 0.06% 50.1% 739
Wednesday 0.11% 53.1% 736
Thursday 0.09% 52.1% 723
Friday 0.06% 52.2% 722

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 65.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 26.5%

Founder-led management: David Rubenstein (Co-Founder & Co-Chairman of the Board), Bill Conway (Co-Founder & Co-Chairman of the Board), Dan D'Aniello (Co-Founder & Chairman Emeritus)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-1,850,000
% of Float-0.7%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Rubenstein David M. -$58.7M 2 2 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-20 Rubenstein David M. -$23.3M Transaction at $46.68, now +5.3%
2025-12-12 Rubenstein David M. -$35.3M Transaction at $56.55, now -13.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Carlyle Group Inc (CG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for CG on Trend Edge →