Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge rates CERT Bearish with a Setup Score of 19, net conviction 42, actionability 9. How the Setup Score works →
| Total Setup Score | 19 |
|---|---|
| Directional Bias | Bearish |
| Net Conviction | 42 |
| Actionability | 9 (in range) |
Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-driven services and software products for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It offers model-informed drug development solutions; biosimulation solutions to predict pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics; Simcyp simulator, a mechanistic bios… Read full Trend Edge analysis →
| Current Price | $8.14 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.33B |
| Float | 112.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 152.5M |
| P/E (Forward) | 12.67 |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 3.16 |
| vs. Analyst Target | +0.6% to analyst PT |
| Profit Margin | -16.22% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | -0.21% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $422M |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | -14.10% |
| Dividend Rate | None |
| Analyst Target Price | $8.19 (11 analysts) |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $244M | -$49.4M | $143M | $17.9M |
| 2021 | $286M | -$13.3M | $174M | $58.6M |
| 2022 | $336M | $14.7M | $203M | $89.0M |
| 2023 | $354M | -$55.4M | $213M | $23.8M |
| 2024 | $385M | -$12.1M | $231M | $72.4M |
| 2025 | $419M | -$1.6M | $258M | $83.9M |
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | $105M | $1.5M |
| Dec 2025 | $104M | -$5.9M |
| Mar 2026 | $107M | -$8.8M |
| Jun 2026 | $93.3M | -$55.3M |
| Insider Ownership | 2.7% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | 113.0% |
| Short Float | 25.8% |
| % of All Funds Holding | 2.73% |
| Number of Funds Holding | 240 |
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
| Timeframe | SMA | Value | Trend Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10-Week SMA | $7.49 | Near-term / short-term trend |
| Weekly | 40-Week SMA | $7.17 | Medium-term trend |
| Weekly | 80-Week SMA | $9.25 | Cyclical trend (business cycle) |
| Weekly | 200-Week SMA | $13.30 | Secular trend (multi-year) |
| Monthly | 10-Month SMA | $7.43 | Near-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 20-Month SMA | $9.59 | Medium-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 40-Month SMA | $12.39 | Secular monthly trend |
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
| Price Level | Type | Volume Ratio | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| $6.70 | support | 1.25x | 0 months ago |
| $8.70 | resistance | 1.52x | 5 months ago |
| $11.40 | resistance | 1.40x | 8 months ago |
| $13.80 | resistance | 1.22x | 14 months ago |
| $15.70 | resistance | 1.56x | 23 months ago |
| Timeframe | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | -0.55% | -0.24% | 45.83% | 9.54% | -13.50% |
| 1 Day | -1.66% | -0.23% | 50.00% | 18.15% | -23.07% |
| 1 Week | -2.45% | -2.26% | 45.83% | 22.34% | -27.06% |
| 2 Weeks | -1.32% | -0.42% | 50.00% | 23.54% | -31.69% |
| 1 Month | -2.14% | -9.77% | 43.48% | 39.14% | -32.07% |
Next earnings: October 23, 2026 (57 days away)
Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).
| Day | Avg Return | Win Rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 0.00% | 49.4% | 267 |
| Tuesday | -0.11% | 47.3% | 296 |
| Wednesday | -0.28% | 48.6% | 294 |
| Thursday | 0.23% | 54.7% | 287 |
| Friday | -0.06% | 48.4% | 285 |
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 113.0%
Total insider ownership: 2.7%
| Total Filings | 2 |
|---|---|
| Net Value | -$359,366.093 |
| Net Shares Change | -27,128 |
| % of Float | -0.0% |
| C-Suite Filings | 2 |
| Clusters Detected | 0 |
| Name | Title | Net Value | Filings | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedersen Leif E | PRESIDENT, CHIEF COMMERCAL OFF | -$559,366.08 | 1 | N/A |
| Feehery William F | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | +$199,999.987 | 1 | 1 buy |
| Date | Insider | Title | Net Value | Price After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-12 | Feehery William F | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | +$199,999.987 | Transaction at $8.30, now -1.9% |
| 2025-09-11 | Pedersen Leif E | PRESIDENT, CHIEF COMMERCAL OFF | -$559,366.08 | Transaction at $10.92, now -25.5% |
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Certara Inc (CERT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
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Get the full AI Consult analysis for CERT on Trend Edge →