BBDC — Barings BDC Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates BBDC Bearish with a Setup Score of 22, net conviction 22, actionability 22. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score22
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction22
Actionability22 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Barings BDC Inc

Barings BDC, Inc. is a publicly traded Real Estate, externally managed investment company that has elected to be treated as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940. It seeks to invest primarily in senior secured loans, first lien debt, unitranche, second lien debt, subordinated debt, equity co-investments and senior secured private debt investments in private middle-market companies that operate across a wide range… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$9.45
Market Cap$984M
Float95.1M
Shares Outstanding104.7M
P/E (Forward)10.35
P/E (TTM)11.46
Price/Sales (TTM)3.70
vs. Analyst Target+5.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin32.73%
Operating Margin (TTM)77.28%
Revenue (TTM)$266M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-10.40%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$9.96 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $17.2M $8.2M -$22.8M $18.4M
2021 $86.8M $77.7M $86.8M $60.4M
2022 $16.0M $4.7M $16.0M $185M
2023 $289M $128M $289M $215M
2024 $209M $110M $124M $114M
2025 $249M $102M $184M $191M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $45.8M $20.6M
Sep 2025 $71.0M $23.6M
Dec 2025 $49.7M $25.2M
Mar 2026 $52.2M $20.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.6%
Institutional Ownership51.8%
Short Float3.1%
% of All Funds Holding2.29%
Number of Funds Holding201

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$8.77Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$8.75Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$8.97Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$9.02Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$8.81Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$9.11Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$9.19Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$8.30 support 1.02x 0 months ago
$9.90 resistance 1.17x 10 months ago
$10.40 resistance 1.43x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (79 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.08% 0.29% 54.43% 5.64% -17.56%
1 Day -0.59% 0.30% 51.90% 9.26% -20.98%
1 Week -0.84% -0.20% 46.84% 12.00% -43.55%
2 Weeks -1.45% -1.39% 43.04% 13.47% -23.67%
1 Month -1.15% -0.37% 44.87% 22.34% -23.60%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.6%73.7%19
Feb1.5%63.2%19
Mar-3.9%35.0%20
Apr2.2%55.0%20
May1.1%70.0%20
Jun0.1%40.0%20
Jul0.9%65.0%20
Aug0.1%68.4%19
Sep-3.1%36.8%19
Oct-0.5%52.6%19
Nov2.2%63.2%19
Dec-3.1%31.6%19

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.09% 48.3% 923
Tuesday -0.08% 45.7% 1008
Wednesday -0.00% 49.3% 1006
Thursday 0.07% 51.6% 987
Friday 0.16% 55.0% 982

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 51.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value+$82,700
Net Shares Change11,090
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
McDonnell Thomas Chief Executive Officer +$82,700 1 1 buy
BYERS STEPHEN R +$9,718.562 1 1 buy, 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-05 McDonnell Thomas Chief Executive Officer +$82,700 Transaction at $8.27, now +14.3%
2025-12-10 BYERS STEPHEN R +$9,718.562 Transaction at $8.97, now +5.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Barings BDC Inc (BBDC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for BBDC on Trend Edge →