AXGN — Axogen Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AXGN Bullish with a Setup Score of 38, net conviction 41, actionability 36. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score38
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction41
Actionability36 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Axogen Inc

Axogen, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and commercialization of the technologies used for peripheral nerve regeneration and repair worldwide. The company offers Avance Nerve Graft, a processed nerve allograft intended for the surgical repair of peripheral nerve discontinuities; Axoguard Nerve Connector, a coaptation aid used to align and connect severed peripheral nerve ends in a tensionless repair; and Axoguard … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$40.58
Market Cap$2.32B
Float52.0M
Shares Outstanding53.2M
P/E (Forward)370.37
Price/Sales (TTM)9.74
vs. Analyst Target+25.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-13.21%
Operating Margin (TTM)-4.61%
Revenue (TTM)$238M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$50.78 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $112M -$23.8M $90.7M -$19.3M
2021 $127M -$27.0M $104M -$20.9M
2022 $139M -$28.9M $109M -$23.5M
2023 $159M -$21.7M $122M -$13.3M
2024 $187M -$10.0M $142M $6.1M
2025 $225M -$15.7M $167M $192,000

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $56.7M $579,000
Sep 2025 $60.1M $708,000
Dec 2025 $59.9M -$13.2M
Mar 2026 $61.5M -$19.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.2%
Institutional Ownership94.2%
Short Float7.0%
% of All Funds Holding2.46%
Number of Funds Holding202

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$42.55Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$33.46Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$24.32Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$15.30Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$35.28Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$25.55Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$17.18Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$38.70 support 1.45x 0 months ago
$33.10 support 1.13x 2 months ago
$17.80 support 1.23x 8 months ago
$13.10 support 2.39x 10 months ago
$10.80 support 2.40x 11 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (102 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.03% 0.00% 37.25% 26.67% -18.83%
1 Day -0.11% 0.00% 37.25% 30.77% -29.24%
1 Week 1.12% -0.33% 46.08% 45.00% -44.62%
2 Weeks 2.88% 1.03% 52.94% 92.31% -53.85%
1 Month 3.73% 0.00% 44.55% 108.96% -53.85%

Next earnings: August 4, 2026 (23 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan10.6%52.5%40
Feb4.0%47.5%40
Mar0.0%37.5%40
Apr2.7%42.5%40
May4.0%37.5%40
Jun1.8%47.5%40
Jul5.8%46.2%39
Aug0.5%43.6%39
Sep-0.8%43.6%39
Oct1.2%46.2%39
Nov1.3%41.0%39
Dec2.2%53.8%39

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 34.6% 1878
Tuesday 0.39% 37.2% 2044
Wednesday 0.42% 38.1% 2042
Thursday 0.14% 36.3% 2004
Friday 0.58% 37.0% 1992

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 94.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings27
Net Value-$5.3M
Net Shares Change-205,585
% of Float-0.4%
C-Suite Filings13
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
DALE MICHAEL D Chief Executive Officer -$750,000 1 1 sell
Weiler Kathy Johnson -$607,032.504 1 1 sell
JOHNSON JOHN -$400,175.75 1 1 sell
Began Marc A EVP & General Counsel -$396,660 1 1 sell
DeVinney Erick Wayne Chief Innovation Officer -$265,708.44 1 1 sell
Kemp Jens Chief Marketing Officer -$173,761.2 1 1 sell
Quackenbush Doris Sales VP -$168,720.146 1 1 sell
Hartley Lindsey Marie CFO -$109,497.78 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-10 – 2025-12-17 13 10 -$9.2M 8 C-suite
2026-05-08 – 2026-05-12 6 6 -$1.4M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-08 Kemp Jens Chief Marketing Officer -$173,761.2 Transaction at $43.44, now -6.6%
2026-05-08 Hartley Lindsey Marie CFO -$892.976 Transaction at $25.95, now +56.4%
2026-05-08 Quackenbush Doris Sales VP -$168,720.146 Transaction at $43.51, now -6.7%
2026-05-12 Wendell Amy McBride -$45,704.25 Transaction at $28.73, now +41.3%
2026-05-08 Weiler Kathy Johnson -$607,032.504 Transaction at $25.52, now +59.0%
2026-05-08 JOHNSON JOHN -$400,175.75 Transaction at $25.15, now +61.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Axogen Inc (AXGN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AXGN on Trend Edge →