ARLO — Arlo Technologies

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ARLO Bearish with a Setup Score of 12, net conviction 19, actionability 7. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score12
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction19
Actionability7 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Arlo Technologies

Arlo Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based platform services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. The company offers Arlo Essential Cameras and Doorbells delivers smart home protection, including automated privacy shield, 360-degree coverage, and 2K video resolution; Arlo Home Security System, an all-in-one multi-sensor that provides access to security experts for monit… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$13.32
Market Cap$1.40B
Float104.5M
Shares Outstanding107.6M
P/E (Forward)14.51
P/E (TTM)48.30
Price/Sales (TTM)2.39
vs. Analyst Target+57.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin5.20%
Operating Margin (TTM)-3.56%
Revenue (TTM)$587M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-6.70%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$21.00 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $357M -$101M $55.4M -$94.7M
2021 $435M -$56.0M $108M -$45.0M
2022 $490M -$56.6M $136M -$50.9M
2023 $491M -$22.0M $168M -$16.2M
2024 $511M -$30.5M $188M -$26.2M
2025 $529M $14.9M $233M $19.6M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $140M $6.9M
Dec 2025 $141M $5.8M
Mar 2026 $150M $14.9M
Jun 2026 $156M $3.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership3.1%
Institutional Ownership104.3%
Short Float11.2%
% of All Funds Holding2.96%
Number of Funds Holding260

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$13.54Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$13.60Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$14.19Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$11.42Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$14.00Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$14.35Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$12.73Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$12.70 support 1.20x 5 months ago
$19.30 resistance 1.17x 8 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (33 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 2.42% 3.30% 57.58% 24.55% -33.03%
1 Day 2.22% 1.70% 54.55% 50.14% -49.01%
1 Week -0.95% -2.93% 36.36% 60.78% -52.44%
2 Weeks -0.36% -3.62% 45.45% 60.78% -46.37%
1 Month 1.16% -0.63% 50.00% 83.19% -40.82%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-5.0%50.0%8
Feb-1.1%62.5%8
Mar-0.6%25.0%8
Apr-0.5%25.0%8
May9.2%50.0%8
Jun5.9%75.0%8
Jul12.3%75.0%8
Aug-4.6%42.9%7
Sep-5.1%50.0%8
Oct-2.8%37.5%8
Nov-1.6%62.5%8
Dec10.1%50.0%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.10% 52.5% 381
Tuesday 0.35% 48.7% 417
Wednesday -0.16% 47.1% 414
Thursday 0.14% 50.2% 406
Friday -0.04% 44.4% 405

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 104.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 3.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings31
Net Value-$29.6M
Net Shares Change-931,959
% of Float-0.9%
C-Suite Filings28
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE CEO -$3.8M 3 3 sell
Binder Kurtis Joseph CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER -$3.4M 3 3 sell
Busse Brian GENERAL COUNSEL -$455,598.572 2 2 sell
Rothstein Amy M -$447,115.11 2 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-30 – 2025-10-02 3 3 -$5.5M 3 C-suite
2026-01-09 – 2026-01-09 3 3 -$2.2M 3 C-suite
2026-03-03 – 2026-03-12 7 3 -$5.8M 7 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-12 MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE CEO -$2.1M Transaction at $13.78, now -3.3%
2026-03-12 Binder Kurtis Joseph CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER -$2.5M Transaction at $13.78, now -3.3%
2026-03-12 Busse Brian GENERAL COUNSEL -$351,609.428 Transaction at $13.78, now -3.3%
2026-03-03 MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE CEO -$416,959.554 Transaction at $14.93, now -10.8%
2026-03-03 Binder Kurtis Joseph CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER -$187,183.446 Transaction at $14.93, now -10.8%
2026-03-03 Busse Brian GENERAL COUNSEL -$103,989.145 Transaction at $14.93, now -10.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Arlo Technologies (ARLO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ARLO on Trend Edge →