AOS — Smith AO Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Smith AO Corporation

A. O. Smith Corporation manufactures and markets residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, tanks, and water treatment products in North America, China, Europe, and India. The company offers water heaters for residences, restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, car washes, and small businesses; boilers for hospitals, schools, hotels, homes, apartments, and condominiums, and other large commercial buil… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$58.33
Market Cap$7.88B
Float109.8M
Shares Outstanding112.0M
P/E (Forward)15.08
P/E (TTM)15.25
Price/Sales (TTM)2.07
vs. Analyst Target+21.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin13.84%
Operating Margin (TTM)17.11%
Revenue (TTM)$3.81B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-10.50%
Dividend Rate1.4%
Analyst Target Price$70.91 (15 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $2.90B $345M $1.11B $531M
2021 $3.54B $487M $1.31B $708M
2022 $3.75B $236M $1.33B $310M
2023 $3.85B $557M $1.48B $824M
2024 $3.82B $534M $1.46B $787M
2025 $3.83B $546M $1.49B $792M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $1.01B $152M
Sep 2025 $943M $132M
Dec 2025 $913M $125M
Mar 2026 $946M $118M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.5%
Institutional Ownership110.6%
Short Float7.3%
% of All Funds Holding7.29%
Number of Funds Holding599

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$61.45Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$68.31Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$68.21Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$70.60Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$68.11Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$68.33Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$72.55Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$66.00 resistance 1.21x 0 months ago
$62.00 resistance 1.05x 0 months ago
$77.00 resistance 1.19x 1 months ago
$89.00 resistance 1.29x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.16% 0.20% 61.16% 4.07% -4.16%
1 Day -0.03% -0.13% 47.11% 12.16% -8.10%
1 Week -0.04% 0.15% 54.55% 18.43% -15.54%
2 Weeks 0.90% 0.66% 56.20% 23.92% -18.07%
1 Month 1.42% 1.78% 58.33% 38.04% -21.38%

Next earnings: July 30, 2026 (63 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.9%48.8%43
Feb1.1%58.1%43
Mar2.8%60.5%43
Apr1.8%48.8%43
May1.3%59.5%42
Jun0.6%57.1%42
Jul2.0%52.4%42
Aug-1.3%42.9%42
Sep-1.5%50.0%42
Oct-1.3%48.8%43
Nov5.4%76.7%43
Dec0.2%48.8%43

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 44.3% 2029
Tuesday 0.02% 46.5% 2204
Wednesday 0.01% 45.8% 2201
Thursday 0.12% 46.9% 2160
Friday 0.12% 47.2% 2150

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 110.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value-$2.2M
Net Shares Change-19,834
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
STERN JAMES F Exec VP, General Counsel and Sec -$1.2M 1 1 sell
Wheeler Kevin J. Executive Chairman -$878,793.66 1 1 sell
SMITH MARK D -$171,264 1 1 sell
Schuh Darrell W. SVP; President and GM Lochinvar -$110,565.399 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-07-29 – 2025-08-07 3 3 -$2.3M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-04 Schuh Darrell W. SVP; President and GM Lochinvar -$82,126.339 Transaction at $74.39, now -21.6%
2026-02-17 Schuh Darrell W. SVP; President and GM Lochinvar -$28,439.06 Transaction at $79.89, now -27.0%
2025-08-07 STERN JAMES F Exec VP, General Counsel and Sec -$1.2M Transaction at $71.24, now -18.1%
2025-07-30 Wheeler Kevin J. Executive Chairman -$878,793.66 Transaction at $51.46, now +13.3%
2025-07-29 SMITH MARK D -$171,264 Transaction at $71.36, now -18.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Smith AO Corporation (AOS) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AOS on Trend Edge →