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Trend Edge rates AFGD Bearish with a Setup Score of 31, net conviction 44, actionability 22. How the Setup Score works →
| Total Setup Score | 31 |
|---|---|
| Directional Bias | Bearish |
| Net Conviction | 44 |
| Actionability | 22 (in range) |
American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Property and Casualty Insurance, Annuity, and Other. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property coverage… Read full Trend Edge analysis →
| Current Price | $19.55 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | N/A |
| Float | 69.0M |
| Profit Margin | 3.21% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 6.19% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $7.29B |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | -14.70% |
| Dividend Rate | None |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $5.67B | $732M | $301M | $726M |
| 2021 | $6.23B | $2.00B | $1.37B | $1.62B |
| 2022 | $6.77B | $898M | $1.20B | $1.31B |
| 2023 | $7.73B | $852M | $1.35B | $1.23B |
| 2024 | $8.28B | $887M | $1.47B | $1.28B |
| 2025 | $8.17B | $842M | $3.79B | $1.24B |
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | $1.93B | $174M |
| Sep 2025 | $2.30B | $215M |
| Dec 2025 | $2.06B | $299M |
| Mar 2026 | $1.85B | $191M |
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
| Timeframe | SMA | Value | Trend Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10-Week SMA | $19.99 | Near-term / short-term trend |
| Weekly | 40-Week SMA | $20.89 | Medium-term trend |
| Weekly | 80-Week SMA | $21.07 | Cyclical trend (business cycle) |
| Weekly | 200-Week SMA | $22.27 | Secular trend (multi-year) |
| Monthly | 10-Month SMA | $20.73 | Near-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 20-Month SMA | $21.11 | Medium-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 40-Month SMA | $22.19 | Secular monthly trend |
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
| Price Level | Type | Volume Ratio | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| $20.90 | resistance | 1.26x | 2 months ago |
| $24.40 | resistance | 1.92x | 17 months ago |
| Timeframe | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | -0.16% | -0.26% | 33.33% | 0.38% | -0.47% |
| 1 Day | -0.21% | -0.30% | 16.67% | 0.38% | -0.51% |
| 1 Week | -0.22% | -0.03% | 50.00% | 0.83% | -2.20% |
| 2 Weeks | -0.34% | -0.40% | 50.00% | 2.60% | -2.50% |
| 1 Month | -1.77% | -2.08% | 16.67% | 3.57% | -5.01% |
Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).
| Day | Avg Return | Win Rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | -0.07% | 50.4% | 282 |
| Tuesday | -0.08% | 45.0% | 313 |
| Wednesday | 0.06% | 48.6% | 311 |
| Thursday | -0.03% | 51.5% | 303 |
| Friday | 0.04% | 47.7% | 304 |
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Founder-led management: Carl H. Lindner Jr. (Co-Chief Executive Officer/Co-President and Director)
Full insider transaction history and smart buy/sell sentiment summary available on Trend Edge.
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGD) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.
Get the full AI Consult analysis for AFGD on Trend Edge →